Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sportivo Luqueno vs Deportivo Santani — Division Intermedia 2026

Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Santani
Deportivo Santani
P. Marisi 57'
P. Aranda 26'
A. Zarate 75', 69'
5/13/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 7Estadio Feliciano Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno47%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Santani27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Luqueno
1.47
Deportivo Santani
1.03

Sportivo Luqueno creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.60
Deportivo Santani
1.14

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno
0.93
Deportivo Santani
1.33

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par
Deportivo Santani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Deportivo Santani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw
73%
Sportivo Luqueno or Deportivo Santani
74%
Draw or Deportivo Santani
53%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
23%
Deportivo Santani wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
77%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
43%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
18%
Deportivo Santani 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Santani 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Santani 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
64%
Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Deportivo Santani away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.60 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Deportivo Santani attack 1.14 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more
47%
level
26%
Deportivo Santani scores more
27%

Sportivo Luqueno at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
P. Aranda
57'
P. Marisi
69'
A. Zarate
75'
A. Zarate

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Sportivo Luqueno 2–2 Deportivo Santani

Sportivo Luqueno and Deportivo Santani drew 2-2 in Division Intermedia on May 13, 2022.

Goals: P. Aranda (26'), P. Marisi (57'), A. Zarate (69', 75').

The match was played at Estadio Feliciano Cáceres in Luque.