Sportivo Luqueno 1–1 Deportivo Santani

Sportivo Luqueno

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Santani

J. Vázquez 14' (pen)

I. Pitta 76'

4/26/2019

Division Profesional - Apertura · Round 18Estadio Ricardo Gregor (Luque)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno40%

×Draw30%

Deportivo Santani29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo LuquenoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Santani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.92

Sportivo Luqueno

1.13

Deportivo Santani

0.92

Sportivo Luqueno creates 23% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 18 away

1.14

creates per match

0.56

1.28

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.14

Deportivo Santani

0.56

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.28

Deportivo Santani

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Deportivo Santani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Deportivo Santani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw

71%

Sportivo Luqueno or Deportivo Santani

70%

Draw or Deportivo Santani

60%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+

17%

Deportivo Santani wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals

68%

Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals

31%

Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals

11%

Deportivo Santani 1+ goals

60%

Deportivo Santani 2+ goals

23%

Deportivo Santani 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)

58%

Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches

Deportivo Santani away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.14 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Deportivo Santani attack 0.56 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more

40%

level

30%

Deportivo Santani scores more

29%

Sportivo Luqueno at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

J. VázquezPenalty

24'

B. Díaz← H. Céspedes

46'

H. Rivero← G. Arévalos

55'

A. Rojas← J. Vázquez

72'

L. Miño← R. Salinas

75'

G. Beltrán← A. Toledo

75'

J. Cañete← W. Alonso

76'

I. Pitta↳ G. Beltrán

Sportivo

Deportivo

1

Ovando

3

Olivera

20

▼

6

16

5

15

11

13

⚽

Pitta

21

▼

Céspedes

29

▼

1

2

4

22

31

33

8

11

▼

Arévalos

23

⚽

▼

Vázquez

18

Armoa

7

▼

Salinas

Manager: R. Torres

46'▲H. Rivero←▼G. Arévalos

55'▲A. Rojas←▼J. Vázquez

72'▲L. Miño←▼R. Salinas

Sportivo Luqueno substitutes

9Rivero21Rojas6Miño24Ortiz15Mendieta28Benítez12Barreto

Manager: P. Caballero

24'▲B. Díaz←▼H. Céspedes

75'▲G. Beltrán←▼A. Toledo

75'▲J. Cañete←▼W. Alonso

Deportivo Santani substitutes

10Díaz19Beltrán14Cañete26Giménez17Orrego7García12Arévalos

Match Recap: Sportivo Luqueno vs Deportivo Santani

Sportivo Luqueno and Deportivo Santani drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on April 26, 2019.

Goals: J. Vázquez (14' pen), I. Pitta (76').

The match was played at Estadio Ricardo Gregor (Luque).

Sportivo Luqueno vs Deportivo Santani — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sportivo Luqueno vs Deportivo Santani