Sportivo Luqueno 0–0 Deportivo Recoleta

Sportivo Luqueno

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Recoleta

8/23/2025

League #252 · Clausura - 9Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno36%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Recoleta39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo LuquenoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Recoleta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.50

Sportivo Luqueno

1.43

Deportivo Recoleta

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.60

creates per match

1.00

2.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.60

Deportivo Recoleta

1.00

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno

2.00

Deportivo Recoleta

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Deportivo Recoleta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw

61%

Sportivo Luqueno or Deportivo Recoleta

75%

Draw or Deportivo Recoleta

64%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+

17%

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals

76%

Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals

42%

Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals

17%

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals

78%

Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals

44%

Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)

48%

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Deportivo Recoleta away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.60 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Deportivo Recoleta attack 1.00 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more

36%

level

25%

Deportivo Recoleta scores more

39%

Deportivo Recoleta at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

A. Espinola

Sportivo Luqueno · D

7.7

Match Events

46'

S. Diaz← J. Ramos

47'

Wilfrido Baez

63'

A. Gonzalez← G. Guggiari

69'

S. Ocampos← A. Espinola

75'

H. Gayoso← B. Ferreira

75'

Hernan Perez← W. Baez

82'

Hernán Pérez

86'

F. Benitez← L. Comas

86'

F. Santander← W. Gonzalez

86'

L. Romero← A. Silva

86'

L. Gonzalez← H. Sandoval

90'

Fernando Benítez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportivoDeportivo

Overview

53%Possession47%

22Total Shots10

0.93Expected Goals (xG)1.22

5Corners6

8Fouls14

Shots

22Total Shots10

3On Target3

13Off Target5

6Blocked2

11Inside Box6

11Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

460Total Passes405

360Accurate Passes313

78%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0