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Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Luqueno — League #252 2026

Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
Hernan Perez 90'
L. Gonzalez 44'
M. Perez 84', 77' (pen)
W. Gonzalez 83'
11/7/2025League #252League #252 · Clausura - 20Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Recoleta30%
×Draw22%
Sportivo Luqueno48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Recoleta
1.54
Sportivo Luqueno
1.98

Sportivo Luqueno creates 29% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Deportivo Recoleta
1.80
Sportivo Luqueno
1.57

allows per match

Deportivo Recoleta
2.40
Sportivo Luqueno
1.29

finishing

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par
Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Recoleta ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Deportivo Recoleta or draw
52%
Deportivo Recoleta or Sportivo Luqueno
78%
Draw or Sportivo Luqueno
70%

Winning margin

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+
14%
Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals
20%
Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
86%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
59%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)
39%
Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Recoleta at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Recoleta attack 1.80 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.57 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo Recoleta scores more
30%
level
22%
Sportivo Luqueno scores more
48%

Sportivo Luqueno at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
M. PerezSportivo LuquenoSportivo Luqueno · F
8.3

Match Events

30'
Iván PirisCard upgrade
31'
Iván Piris
44'
L. Gonzalez↳ A. Silva
46'
S. Diaz← T. Franco
57'
H. Sandoval← L. Gonzalez
57'
W. Baez← M. Schupp
62'
Sebastian Vargas
66'
J. Ramos← L. Comas
66'
M. Perez← W. Rodriguez
67'
B. Medina← J. Falcon
75'
Kevin PereiraPenalty confirmed
77'
Kevin Pereira
77'
M. PerezPenalty
78'
Hernan Perez← A. Silva
78'
J. Espinola← L. Romero
81'
Matías López
81'
Sergio Díaz
83'
W. Gonzalez↳ K. Pereira
84'
M. Perez↳ S. Diaz
86'
Lucas Monzon
89'
F. Benitez← W. Gonzalez
89'
W. Ayala← K. Pereira
90+5'
Fernando Benítez
90'
Hernan Perez

Possession

41%Deportivo

Shots

9Deportivo

Pass accuracy

49%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoSportivo
Overview
41%Possession59%
9Total Shots15
0.73Expected Goals (xG)2.11
3Corners6
11Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots15
3On Target5
4Off Target7
2Blocked3
4Inside Box9
5Outside Box6
Passing
41%Possession59%
294Total Passes425
223Accurate Passes342
76%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls10
2Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Luqueno

Sportivo Luqueno beat Deportivo Recoleta 3-2 in League #252 on November 7, 2025.

Goals: L. Gonzalez (44'), M. Perez (77' pen, 84'), W. Gonzalez (83'), Hernan Perez (90').

Sportivo Luqueno controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio in Asunción.