Sportivo Luqueno 0–0 Coquimbo Unido: Result & Stats

Sportivo Luqueno

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Coquimbo Unido

5/8/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno31%

×Draw28%

Coquimbo Unido41%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo LuquenoExpected goals in this matchCoquimbo Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.27

Sportivo Luqueno

1.06

Coquimbo Unido

1.27

Coquimbo Unido creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

1.11

1.44

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.00

Coquimbo Unido

1.11

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.44

Coquimbo Unido

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Coquimbo Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw

59%

Sportivo Luqueno or Coquimbo Unido

72%

Draw or Coquimbo Unido

69%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+

12%

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals

65%

Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals

29%

Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals

9%

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

72%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

36%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)

43%

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.00 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.11 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more

31%

level

28%

Coquimbo Unido scores more

41%

Coquimbo Unido at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

J. Cornejo

Coquimbo Unido · D

7.7

Match Events

22'

Bruno Cabrera

45+1'

José Leguizamón

46'

M. Ferreira← J. Benítez

46'

L. Comas← Diego Fernández

47'

Luciano Cabral

50'

Dylan Glaby

81'

S. Fretes← N. Maná

81'

L. Barrios← A. Álvarez

81'

D. Ríos← J. Mendoza

84'

Rodrigo Alborno

84'

S. Cabrera← C. Barrera

89'

A. Camargo← B. Chandía

90+3'

N. Johansen← A. Chávez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportivoCoquimbo

Overview

58%Possession42%

4Total Shots11

6Corners3

13Fouls13

Shots

4Total Shots11

0On Target1

3Off Target8

1Blocked2

3Inside Box9

1Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

378Total Passes267

286Accurate Passes178

76%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1