Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Coquimbo Unido vs Sportivo Luqueno — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
A. Chávez 15'
4/12/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Coquimbo Unido52%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Luqueno20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coquimbo Unido
1.34
Sportivo Luqueno
0.70

Coquimbo Unido creates 91% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.13
Sportivo Luqueno
0.89

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido
0.50
Sportivo Luqueno
1.56

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par
Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw
80%
Coquimbo Unido or Sportivo Luqueno
72%
Draw or Sportivo Luqueno
48%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
25%
Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
74%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
39%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
15%
Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
50%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
16%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
73%
Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.13 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sportivo Luqueno attack 0.89 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more
52%
level
28%
Sportivo Luqueno scores more
20%

Coquimbo Unido at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
D. EscobarCoquimbo UnidoCoquimbo Unido · D
7.6

Match Events

15'
A. Chávez↳ D. Escobar
34'
Nicolás Maná
37'
Jorge Mendoza
43'
Diego Acosta
45+5'
Alfredo AguilarRed card cancelled
57'
L. Cabral← M. Mundaca
61'
Dylan Escobar
67'
A. Álvarez← J. Benítez
67'
Diego Fernández← L. Comas
68'
M. Ferreira← D. Acosta
73'
S. Fretes← N. Maná
79'
B. Cabrera← E. Hernández
80'
J. Cornejo← B. Chandía
87'
Diego Vera
88'
Cristopher Barrera
89'
N. Johansen← A. Chávez
89'
A. Camargo← S. Galani
90+3'
Juan Cornejo

Possession

39%Coquimbo

Shots

10Coquimbo

Pass accuracy

46%Coquimbo

Statistics

CoquimboSportivo
Overview
39%Possession61%
10Total Shots10
3Corners2
9Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots10
5On Target1
5Off Target6
0Blocked3
6Inside Box5
4Outside Box5
Passing
39%Possession61%
346Total Passes549
219Accurate Passes413
63%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls14
3Yellow Cards4
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Coquimbo Unido vs Sportivo Luqueno

Coquimbo Unido beat Sportivo Luqueno 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 12, 2024.

Goals: A. Chávez (15').

Sportivo Luqueno controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Coquimbo.