Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Sportivo Luqueno

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Unknown 90+7'

J. Villamayor 67'

J. Quintana 47'

6/24/2022

Division Intermedia · Round 14Estadio Feliciano Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno43%

×Draw28%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo LuquenoExpected goals in this matchClub Sp. San Lorenzo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.06

Sportivo Luqueno

1.32

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.06

Sportivo Luqueno creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 92 away

1.60

creates per match

1.20

0.93

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.60

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.20

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno

0.93

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Club Sp. San Lorenzo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw

70%

Sportivo Luqueno or Club Sp. San Lorenzo

72%

Draw or Club Sp. San Lorenzo

57%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+

20%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals

73%

Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals

38%

Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals

15%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals

65%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals

29%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)

59%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.60 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.32

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.20 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more

43%

level

28%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more

30%

Sportivo Luqueno at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

J. Quintana

67'

J. Villamayor

90+7'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff