Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2–0 Sportivo Luqueno

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sportivo Luqueno

M. Caceres 42'

D. Mino 29'

10/2/2022

Division Intermedia · Round 29Estadio Lic. Erico Galeano Segovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo40%

×Draw28%

Sportivo Luqueno32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Sp. San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchSportivo Luqueno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.05

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.22

Sportivo Luqueno

1.05

Club Sp. San Lorenzo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 15 away

1.64

creates per match

1.20

0.91

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.64

Sportivo Luqueno

1.20

allows per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

0.91

Sportivo Luqueno

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Sp. San Lorenzo ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or draw

68%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or Sportivo Luqueno

72%

Draw or Sportivo Luqueno

60%

Winning margin

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+

17%

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals

70%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals

34%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals

12%

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals

65%

Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals

28%

Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

56%

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 92 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.64 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.20 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more

40%

level

28%

Sportivo Luqueno scores more

32%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

D. Mino

42'

M. Caceres

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff