Sportivo Luqueno 2–2 Club River Plate

Sportivo Luqueno

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Club River Plate

4/26/2021

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 13Estadio Feliciano Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno42%

×Draw28%

Club River Plate31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo LuquenoExpected goals in this matchClub River Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.07

Sportivo Luqueno

1.30

Club River Plate

1.07

Sportivo Luqueno creates 21% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 31 away

1.13

creates per match

0.84

1.30

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.13

Club River Plate

0.84

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.30

Club River Plate

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Club River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw

69%

Sportivo Luqueno or Club River Plate

72%

Draw or Club River Plate

58%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+

19%

Club River Plate wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals

73%

Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals

37%

Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals

14%

Club River Plate 1+ goals

66%

Club River Plate 2+ goals

29%

Club River Plate 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)

58%

Club River Plate (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.30 · 86 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.13 + Club River Plate defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Club River Plate attack 0.84 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more

42%

level

28%

Club River Plate scores more

31%

Sportivo Luqueno at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff