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Club River Plate vs Sportivo Luqueno — Division Intermedia 2018

Club River Plate
Club River Plate
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
J. Ruiz Diaz 34'
D. Fernandez 66'
P. Meza 55'
7/10/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 16Estadio River Plate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Club River Plate32%
×Draw29%
Sportivo Luqueno39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club River Plate
1.02
Sportivo Luqueno
1.16

Sportivo Luqueno creates 14% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

creates per match

Club River Plate
1.24
Sportivo Luqueno
1.20

allows per match

Club River Plate
1.11
Sportivo Luqueno
0.80

finishing

Club River Plate+0.00on par
Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club River Plate ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Club River Plate or draw
61%
Club River Plate or Sportivo Luqueno
71%
Draw or Sportivo Luqueno
68%

Winning margin

Club River Plate wins by 2+
12%
Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Club River Plate 1+ goals
64%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
27%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
8%
Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
69%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
32%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Club River Plate (draw refunded)
45%
Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club River Plate at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club River Plate attack 1.24 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.20 + Club River Plate defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Club River Plate scores more
32%
level
29%
Sportivo Luqueno scores more
39%

Sportivo Luqueno at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
J. Ruiz Diaz
55'
P. Meza
66'
D. Fernandez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Club River Plate 1–2 Sportivo Luqueno

Sportivo Luqueno beat Club River Plate 2-1 in Division Intermedia on July 10, 2022.

Goals: J. Ruiz Diaz (34'), P. Meza (55'), D. Fernandez (66').

The match was played at Estadio River Plate in Asunción.