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Sportivo Luqueno vs Atyrá — Division Intermedia 2018

Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Atyrá
Atyrá
8/26/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 23Estadio Feliciano Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno50%
×Draw25%
Atyrá25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Luqueno
1.58
Atyrá
1.03

Sportivo Luqueno creates 53% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 62 away

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.60
Atyrá
1.13

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno
0.93
Atyrá
1.55

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par
Atyrá+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Atyrá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw
75%
Sportivo Luqueno or Atyrá
75%
Draw or Atyrá
50%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
26%
Atyrá wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
79%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
47%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
21%
Atyrá 1+ goals
64%
Atyrá 2+ goals
28%
Atyrá 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
67%
Atyrá (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Atyrá away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.55 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.60 + Atyrá defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Atyrá attack 1.13 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more
50%
level
25%
Atyrá scores more
25%

Sportivo Luqueno at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Sportivo Luqueno 2–1 Atyrá

Sportivo Luqueno beat Atyrá 2-1 in Division Intermedia on August 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Feliciano Cáceres in Luque.