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Atyrá vs Sportivo Luqueno — Division Intermedia 2018

Atyrá
Atyrá
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
5/19/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 8Estadio San Francisco de Asis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atyrá31%
×Draw29%
Sportivo Luqueno40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atyrá
1.02
Sportivo Luqueno
1.19

Sportivo Luqueno creates 17% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 15 away

creates per match

Atyrá
1.23
Sportivo Luqueno
1.20

allows per match

Atyrá
1.19
Sportivo Luqueno
0.80

finishing

Atyrá+0.00on par
Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrá ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atyrá or draw
60%
Atyrá or Sportivo Luqueno
71%
Draw or Sportivo Luqueno
69%

Winning margin

Atyrá wins by 2+
12%
Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atyrá 1+ goals
64%
Atyrá 2+ goals
27%
Atyrá 3+ goals
8%
Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
70%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
33%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atyrá (draw refunded)
44%
Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atyrá at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atyrá attack 1.23 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.20 + Atyrá defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atyrá scores more
31%
level
29%
Sportivo Luqueno scores more
40%

Sportivo Luqueno at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Atyrá 0–1 Sportivo Luqueno

Sportivo Luqueno beat Atyrá 1-0 in Division Intermedia on May 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Francisco de Asis in Atyrä.