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Sportivo Luqueno vs Atletico Grau — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
J. Bolivar 39' (OG)
J. Rostaing 33'
5/14/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estadio Feliciano Caceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno40%
×Draw28%
Atletico Grau32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Luqueno
1.25
Atletico Grau
1.09

Sportivo Luqueno creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.00
Atletico Grau
0.75

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.44
Atletico Grau
1.50

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par
Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Atletico Grau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw
68%
Sportivo Luqueno or Atletico Grau
72%
Draw or Atletico Grau
60%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
18%
Atletico Grau wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
71%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
36%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
13%
Atletico Grau 1+ goals
66%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
30%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
55%
Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.00 + Atletico Grau defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atletico Grau attack 0.75 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more
40%
level
28%
Atletico Grau scores more
32%

Sportivo Luqueno at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
J. RostaingAtletico GrauAtletico Grau · M
7.6

Match Events

17'
Sebastián Maldonado
25'
W. Gonzalez← F. Santander
33'
J. Rostaing↳ T. Sandoval
39'
J. BolivarOwn goal
61'
A. Vasquez← N. Bandiera
65'
Walter González
67'
L. Comas← K. Pereira
73'
Walter Rodríguez
76'
P. Aguilar← A. Brizuela
76'
R. Caceres← E. Vera
76'
F. Benitez← W. Rodriguez
76'
C. Olivares← T. Sandoval
83'
B. Garcia← R. Vilca
90+5'
Pablo Aguilar

Possession

50%Sportivo

Shots

12Sportivo

Pass accuracy

49%Sportivo

Statistics

SportivoAtletico
Overview
50%Possession50%
12Total Shots9
7Corners3
15Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots9
2On Target3
4Off Target2
6Blocked4
10Inside Box7
2Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
429Total Passes445
346Accurate Passes376
81%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls10
3Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Sportivo Luqueno vs Atletico Grau

Sportivo Luqueno and Atletico Grau drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 14, 2025.

Goals: J. Rostaing (33'), J. Bolivar (39' o.g.).

Sportivo Luqueno controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Feliciano Caceres in Luque.