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Atletico Grau vs Sportivo Luqueno — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
N. Bandiera 90'
J. Garro 44'
W. Gonzalez 27'
W. Ayala 8'
4/24/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atletico Grau35%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Luqueno37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
1.16
Sportivo Luqueno
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
0.75
Sportivo Luqueno
0.89

allows per match

Atletico Grau
1.50
Sportivo Luqueno
1.56

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
63%
Atletico Grau or Sportivo Luqueno
72%
Draw or Sportivo Luqueno
65%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
14%
Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
69%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
32%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
11%
Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
70%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
34%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
49%
Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 0.75 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sportivo Luqueno attack 0.89 + Atletico Grau defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
35%
level
28%
Sportivo Luqueno scores more
37%

Sportivo Luqueno at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
W. AyalaSportivo LuquenoSportivo Luqueno · M
8.5

Match Events

8'
W. Ayala↳ W. Gonzalez
24'
Fabio Rojas
27'
W. Gonzalez↳ W. Ayala
44'
J. Garro↳ D. Franco
45+3'
Rafael Guarderas
46'
A. Vasquez← E. Rodas
46'
R. Vilca← J. Rostaing
65'
Ángel Benítez
68'
F. Benitez← L. Comas
75'
F. Santander← W. Gonzalez
75'
M. Perez← W. Ayala
75'
J. Baez← R. D. Rios
84'
Herrera Joel← R. Guarderas
85'
W. Rodriguez← E. Vera
90'
N. Bandiera↳ J. Garro

Possession

69%Atletico

Shots

14Atletico

Pass accuracy

55%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoSportivo
Overview
69%Possession31%
14Total Shots12
5Corners1
8Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots12
3On Target4
7Off Target7
4Blocked1
10Inside Box10
4Outside Box2
Passing
69%Possession31%
592Total Passes272
509Accurate Passes191
86%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Atletico Grau 2–2 Sportivo Luqueno

Atletico Grau and Sportivo Luqueno drew 2-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 24, 2025.

Goals: W. Ayala (8'), W. Gonzalez (27'), J. Garro (44'), N. Bandiera (90').

Atletico Grau controlled possession (69%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.