Sportivo Las Parejas 1–2 Estudiantes S.l.

Sportivo Las Parejas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Estudiantes S.l.

I. Ortigoza 69'

F. Quiroga 45'

J. Amieva 1'

2/20/2020

Copa Argentina · Qualifying RoundEstadio La Perrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sportivo Las Parejas18%

×Draw21%

Estudiantes S.l.62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo Las ParejasExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes S.l.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.06

Sportivo Las Parejas

1.00

Estudiantes S.l.

2.06

Estudiantes S.l. creates 106% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.80

2.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Sportivo Las Parejas

1.00

Estudiantes S.l.

1.80

allows per match

Sportivo Las Parejas

2.33

Estudiantes S.l.

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Las Parejas+0.00on par

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Las Parejas ↓

Estudiantes S.l. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sportivo Las Parejas or draw

38%

Sportivo Las Parejas or Estudiantes S.l.

79%

Draw or Estudiantes S.l.

82%

Winning margin

Sportivo Las Parejas wins by 2+

6%

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Sportivo Las Parejas 1+ goals

63%

Sportivo Las Parejas 2+ goals

26%

Sportivo Las Parejas 3+ goals

8%

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals

87%

Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals

61%

Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Las Parejas (draw refunded)

22%

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Las Parejas at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Estudiantes S.l. away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Las Parejas attack 1.00 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Estudiantes S.l. attack 1.80 + Sportivo Las Parejas defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sportivo Las Parejas scores more

18%

level

21%

Estudiantes S.l. scores more

62%

Estudiantes S.l. at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Estudiantes S.l. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

J. Amieva

45'

F. Quiroga

46'

L. Pasco← L. Navas

57'

F. Simioli← S. Rodríguez

58'

B. Otero← P. Soda

62'

E. Díaz← I. Roldán

67'

S. Gutiérrez← F. Vera

68'

L. Felice← J. Amieva

69'

I. Ortigoza

Sportivo

Estudiantes

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: L. Fernández

46'▲L. Pasco←▼L. Navas

58'▲B. Otero←▼P. Soda

67'▲S. Gutiérrez←▼F. Vera

Sportivo Las Parejas substitutes

PascoOteroGutiérrezFernándezAcostaAcostaRamírez

Manager: H. Arzubialde

57'▲F. Simioli←▼S. Rodríguez

62'▲E. Díaz←▼I. Roldán

68'▲L. Felice←▼J. Amieva

Estudiantes S.l. substitutes

SimioliDíazFeliceBecerraZapataEcharriQuiroga

Match Recap: Sportivo Las Parejas vs Estudiantes S.l.

Estudiantes S.l. beat Sportivo Las Parejas 2-1 in Copa Argentina on February 20, 2020.

Goals: J. Amieva (1'), F. Quiroga (45'), I. Ortigoza (69').

The match was played at Estadio La Perrera in Las Parejas, Provincia de Santa Fe.

Sportivo Las Parejas vs Estudiantes S.l. — Copa Argentina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sportivo Las Parejas vs Estudiantes S.l.