Estudiantes S.l. 1–1 Sportivo Las Parejas

Estudiantes S.l.

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sportivo Las Parejas

F. Alaggia 30'

J. Bonet 89'

9/28/2024

Torneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Héctor Odicino Pedro Benoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Estudiantes S.l.43%

×Draw28%

Sportivo Las Parejas29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes S.l.Expected goals in this matchSportivo Las Parejas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.00

Estudiantes S.l.

1.30

Sportivo Las Parejas

1.00

Estudiantes S.l. creates 30% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 89 away

1.17

creates per match

0.93

1.06

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Estudiantes S.l.

1.17

Sportivo Las Parejas

0.93

allows per match

Estudiantes S.l.

1.06

Sportivo Las Parejas

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par

Sportivo Las Parejas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes S.l. ↓

Sportivo Las Parejas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Estudiantes S.l. or draw

71%

Estudiantes S.l. or Sportivo Las Parejas

72%

Draw or Sportivo Las Parejas

57%

Winning margin

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+

20%

Sportivo Las Parejas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals

73%

Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals

37%

Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals

14%

Sportivo Las Parejas 1+ goals

63%

Sportivo Las Parejas 2+ goals

26%

Sportivo Las Parejas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)

60%

Sportivo Las Parejas (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes S.l. at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.06 · 77 matches

Sportivo Las Parejas away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.43 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes S.l. attack 1.17 + Sportivo Las Parejas defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sportivo Las Parejas attack 0.93 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Estudiantes S.l. scores more

43%

level

28%

Sportivo Las Parejas scores more

29%

Estudiantes S.l. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Estudiantes S.l. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

F. Alaggia

46'

C. Leineker← J. Acosta

46'

E. Zeballos← F. Godoy

46'

L. Yocco← L. Príncipe

59'

L. Soto← F. Flores

59'

U. Muñoz← F. Bustamante

70'

B. Astudillo← A. Álvarez

70'

F. Álvarez← L. Do Campo

77'

B. Pérez← J. Trinidad

89'

Matías Martínez← M. Valor

89'

J. Bonet

Estudiantes

Sportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Fuentes

59'▲L. Soto←▼F. Flores

59'▲U. Muñoz←▼F. Bustamante

70'▲B. Astudillo←▼A. Álvarez

70'▲F. Álvarez←▼L. Do Campo

77'▲B. Pérez←▼J. Trinidad

Estudiantes S.l. substitutes

SotoMuñozAstudilloÁlvarezPérez

Manager: S. Cejas

46'▲C. Leineker←▼J. Acosta

46'▲E. Zeballos←▼F. Godoy

46'▲L. Yocco←▼L. Príncipe

89'▲Matías Martínez←▼M. Valor

Sportivo Las Parejas substitutes

LeinekerZeballosYoccoMartínez