Sportivo Las Parejas 1–1 Def. de Pronunciamiento

Sportivo Las Parejas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Def. de Pronunciamiento

C. Leineker 89'

I. Valsangiácomo 90+4' (pen)

4/21/2024

Torneo Federal A · Group 3 - 5Estadio La Perrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Sportivo Las Parejas51%

×Draw28%

Def. de Pronunciamiento21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo Las ParejasExpected goals in this matchDef. de Pronunciamiento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.76

Sportivo Las Parejas

1.36

Def. de Pronunciamiento

0.76

Sportivo Las Parejas creates 79% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 88 away

1.24

creates per match

0.81

0.70

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Sportivo Las Parejas

1.24

Def. de Pronunciamiento

0.81

allows per match

Sportivo Las Parejas

0.70

Def. de Pronunciamiento

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Las Parejas+0.00on par

Def. de Pronunciamiento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Las Parejas ↓

Def. de Pronunciamiento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sportivo Las Parejas or draw

79%

Sportivo Las Parejas or Def. de Pronunciamiento

72%

Draw or Def. de Pronunciamiento

49%

Winning margin

Sportivo Las Parejas wins by 2+

25%

Def. de Pronunciamiento wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sportivo Las Parejas 1+ goals

74%

Sportivo Las Parejas 2+ goals

39%

Sportivo Las Parejas 3+ goals

16%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 1+ goals

53%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 2+ goals

18%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Las Parejas (draw refunded)

71%

Def. de Pronunciamiento (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Las Parejas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.70 · 110 matches

Def. de Pronunciamiento away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Las Parejas attack 1.24 + Def. de Pronunciamiento defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Def. de Pronunciamiento attack 0.81 + Sportivo Las Parejas defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sportivo Las Parejas scores more

51%

level

28%

Def. de Pronunciamiento scores more

21%

Sportivo Las Parejas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sportivo Las Parejas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

M. Martinez

37'

L. Pasinato← R. Maldonado

46'

B. Jiménez← J. Montero

56'

J. Cubas← L. Coyette

64'

C. Leineker← J. Bonet

64'

F. Gómez← L. Robles

64'

J. Ramírez← N. Fassino

72'

M. Bevilacqua← A. Luque

72'

L. Almada← J. Acosta

73'

A. Depotte← J. Rossi

76'

89'

C. Leineker

90+4'

I. ValsangiácomoPenalty

Sportivo

Def.

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Cejas

37'▲L. Pasinato←▼R. Maldonado

46'▲B. Jiménez←▼J. Montero

64'▲C. Leineker←▼J. Bonet

72'▲M. Bevilacqua←▼A. Luque

72'▲L. Almada←▼J. Acosta

Sportivo Las Parejas substitutes

PasinatoJiménezLeinekerBevilacquaAlmada

Manager: L. Castrillón

56'▲J. Cubas←▼L. Coyette

64'▲F. Gómez←▼L. Robles

64'▲J. Ramírez←▼N. Fassino

73'▲A. Depotte←▼J. Rossi

Def. de Pronunciamiento substitutes

CubasGómezRamírezDepotte

Match Recap: Sportivo Las Parejas vs Def. de Pronunciamiento

Sportivo Las Parejas and Def. de Pronunciamiento drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on April 21, 2024.

Goals: C. Leineker (89'), I. Valsangiácomo (90+4' pen).

The match was played at Estadio La Perrera in Las Parejas, Provincia de Santa Fe.

Sportivo Las Parejas vs Def. de Pronunciamiento — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sportivo Las Parejas vs Def. de Pronunciamiento