Def. de Pronunciamiento 3–1 Sportivo Las Parejas

Def. de Pronunciamiento

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sportivo Las Parejas

L. Robles 68', 1'

J. Rossi 31'

M. Romero 24' (pen)

7/29/2023

Torneo Federal A · Group 3 - 23Estadio Delio Esteban Cardozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Def. de Pronunciamiento43%

×Draw29%

Sportivo Las Parejas28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Def. de PronunciamientoExpected goals in this matchSportivo Las Parejas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.94

Def. de Pronunciamiento

1.23

Sportivo Las Parejas

0.94

Def. de Pronunciamiento creates 31% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 114 away

1.19

creates per match

0.86

1.02

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Def. de Pronunciamiento

1.19

Sportivo Las Parejas

0.86

allows per match

Def. de Pronunciamiento

1.02

Sportivo Las Parejas

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Def. de Pronunciamiento+0.00on par

Sportivo Las Parejas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Def. de Pronunciamiento ↓

Sportivo Las Parejas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Def. de Pronunciamiento or draw

72%

Def. de Pronunciamiento or Sportivo Las Parejas

71%

Draw or Sportivo Las Parejas

57%

Winning margin

Def. de Pronunciamiento wins by 2+

19%

Sportivo Las Parejas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Def. de Pronunciamiento 1+ goals

71%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 2+ goals

35%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 3+ goals

13%

Sportivo Las Parejas 1+ goals

61%

Sportivo Las Parejas 2+ goals

24%

Sportivo Las Parejas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Def. de Pronunciamiento (draw refunded)

60%

Sportivo Las Parejas (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Def. de Pronunciamiento at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 85 matches

Sportivo Las Parejas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.28 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Def. de Pronunciamiento attack 1.19 + Sportivo Las Parejas defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sportivo Las Parejas attack 0.86 + Def. de Pronunciamiento defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Def. de Pronunciamiento scores more

43%

level

29%

Sportivo Las Parejas scores more

28%

Def. de Pronunciamiento at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Def. de Pronunciamiento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

L. Robles

24'

M. RomeroPenalty

31'

J. Rossi

41'

L. Zannier

59'

B. Parada← J. Sosa

65'

G. Saliadarre← E. Serrano

68'

L. Robles

71'

J. León← M. Romero

73'

A. Rizzo← J. Laureiro

73'

R. Pelaytay← L. Robles

77'

L. Ricciotti← M. Caballo

77'

M. Perussato← L. Segovia

84'

A. Pastorelli← J. Rossi

84'

L. Ilari← Y. Gurnel

Def.

Sportivo

Alarcón

Luque

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Rossi

Hofstette

⚽2

▼

Robles

Manager: H. Orcellet

65'▲G. Saliadarre←▼E. Serrano

73'▲A. Rizzo←▼J. Laureiro

73'▲R. Pelaytay←▼L. Robles

84'▲A. Pastorelli←▼J. Rossi

84'▲L. Ilari←▼Y. Gurnel

Def. de Pronunciamiento substitutes

SaliadarreRizzoPelaytayPastorelliIlari

Manager: W. Grazziosi

59'▲B. Parada←▼J. Sosa

71'▲J. León←▼M. Romero

77'▲L. Ricciotti←▼M. Caballo

77'▲M. Perussato←▼L. Segovia

Sportivo Las Parejas substitutes

ParadaLeónRicciottiPerussato