Sportivo Las Parejas 0–1 Central Norte

Sportivo Las Parejas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Central Norte

8/14/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 24Estadio La Perrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Sportivo Las Parejas43%

×Draw30%

Central Norte27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo Las ParejasExpected goals in this matchCentral Norte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.85

Sportivo Las Parejas

1.17

Central Norte

0.85

Sportivo Las Parejas creates 38% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 76 away

1.24

creates per match

1.00

0.70

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Sportivo Las Parejas

1.24

Central Norte

1.00

allows per match

Sportivo Las Parejas

0.70

Central Norte

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Las Parejas+0.00on par

Central Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Las Parejas ↓

Central Norte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sportivo Las Parejas or draw

73%

Sportivo Las Parejas or Central Norte

70%

Draw or Central Norte

57%

Winning margin

Sportivo Las Parejas wins by 2+

19%

Central Norte wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sportivo Las Parejas 1+ goals

69%

Sportivo Las Parejas 2+ goals

33%

Sportivo Las Parejas 3+ goals

11%

Central Norte 1+ goals

57%

Central Norte 2+ goals

21%

Central Norte 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Las Parejas (draw refunded)

62%

Central Norte (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Las Parejas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.70 · 110 matches

Central Norte away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Las Parejas attack 1.24 + Central Norte defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Central Norte attack 1.00 + Sportivo Las Parejas defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sportivo Las Parejas scores more

43%

level

30%

Central Norte scores more

27%

Sportivo Las Parejas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sportivo Las Parejas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff