Central Norte 3–1 Sportivo Las Parejas

Central Norte

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sportivo Las Parejas

11/5/2023

Torneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundEstadio Padre Ernesto Martearena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Central Norte55%

×Draw26%

Sportivo Las Parejas19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central NorteExpected goals in this matchSportivo Las Parejas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.76

Central Norte

1.49

Sportivo Las Parejas

0.76

Central Norte creates 96% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 113 away

1.69

creates per match

0.87

0.65

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Central Norte

1.69

Sportivo Las Parejas

0.87

allows per match

Central Norte

0.65

Sportivo Las Parejas

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Norte+0.00on par

Sportivo Las Parejas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Norte ↓

Sportivo Las Parejas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Central Norte or draw

81%

Central Norte or Sportivo Las Parejas

74%

Draw or Sportivo Las Parejas

45%

Winning margin

Central Norte wins by 2+

28%

Sportivo Las Parejas wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Central Norte 1+ goals

77%

Central Norte 2+ goals

44%

Central Norte 3+ goals

19%

Sportivo Las Parejas 1+ goals

53%

Sportivo Las Parejas 2+ goals

18%

Sportivo Las Parejas 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Central Norte (draw refunded)

74%

Sportivo Las Parejas (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Norte at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.65 · 77 matches

Sportivo Las Parejas away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.29 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Norte attack 1.69 + Sportivo Las Parejas defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.49

Sportivo Las Parejas attack 0.87 + Central Norte defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Central Norte scores more

55%

level

26%

Sportivo Las Parejas scores more

19%

Central Norte at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Central Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff