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Sportivo Iteno vs Ovetense FC — Division Intermedia 2018

Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
FT
1 – 0
Ovetense FC
Ovetense FC
11/3/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 28Estadio Salvador Morga (Itá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sportivo Iteno43%
×Draw27%
Ovetense FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Iteno
1.33
Ovetense FC
1.06

Sportivo Iteno creates 25% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sportivo Iteno
0.97
Ovetense FC
0.90

allows per match

Sportivo Iteno
1.22
Ovetense FC
1.70

finishing

Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par
Ovetense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Iteno ↓

Ovetense FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Iteno or draw
70%
Sportivo Iteno or Ovetense FC
73%
Draw or Ovetense FC
57%

Winning margin

Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
20%
Ovetense FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
74%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
38%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
15%
Ovetense FC 1+ goals
65%
Ovetense FC 2+ goals
29%
Ovetense FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
59%
Ovetense FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Iteno at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

Ovetense FC away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.97 + Ovetense FC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ovetense FC attack 0.90 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sportivo Iteno scores more
43%
level
27%
Ovetense FC scores more
30%

Sportivo Iteno at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sportivo Iteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Iteno vs Ovetense FC

Sportivo Iteno beat Ovetense FC 1-0 in Division Intermedia on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Salvador Morga (Itá).