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Ovetense FC vs Sportivo Iteno — Division Intermedia 2018

Ovetense FC
Ovetense FC
FT
3 – 2
Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
9/9/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 28Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ovetense FC48%
×Draw27%
Sportivo Iteno25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ovetense FC
1.41
Sportivo Iteno
0.94

Ovetense FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 63 away

creates per match

Ovetense FC
1.00
Sportivo Iteno
0.98

allows per match

Ovetense FC
0.90
Sportivo Iteno
1.81

finishing

Ovetense FC+0.00on par
Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ovetense FC ↓

Sportivo Iteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ovetense FC or draw
75%
Ovetense FC or Sportivo Iteno
73%
Draw or Sportivo Iteno
52%

Winning margin

Ovetense FC wins by 2+
23%
Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ovetense FC 1+ goals
76%
Ovetense FC 2+ goals
41%
Ovetense FC 3+ goals
17%
Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
61%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
24%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ovetense FC (draw refunded)
66%
Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ovetense FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Sportivo Iteno away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ovetense FC attack 1.00 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + Ovetense FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ovetense FC scores more
48%
level
27%
Sportivo Iteno scores more
25%

Ovetense FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ovetense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ovetense FC vs Sportivo Iteno

Ovetense FC beat Sportivo Iteno 3-2 in Division Intermedia on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo).