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Sportivo Iteno vs General Caballero — Division Intermedia 2018

Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
FT
2 – 2
General Caballero
General Caballero
5/12/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 3Estadio Salvador Morga (Itá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Sportivo Iteno35%
×Draw28%
General Caballero37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Iteno
1.19
General Caballero
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 53 away

creates per match

Sportivo Iteno
0.97
General Caballero
1.25

allows per match

Sportivo Iteno
1.22
General Caballero
1.42

finishing

Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par
General Caballero+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Iteno ↓

General Caballero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sportivo Iteno or draw
63%
Sportivo Iteno or General Caballero
72%
Draw or General Caballero
65%

Winning margin

Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
15%
General Caballero wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
70%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
33%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
12%
General Caballero 1+ goals
71%
General Caballero 2+ goals
35%
General Caballero 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
49%
General Caballero (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Iteno at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

General Caballero away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.97 + General Caballero defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

General Caballero attack 1.25 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sportivo Iteno scores more
35%
level
28%
General Caballero scores more
37%

General Caballero at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "General Caballero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Sportivo Iteno 2–2 General Caballero

Sportivo Iteno and General Caballero drew 2-2 in Division Intermedia on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Salvador Morga (Itá).