Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

General Caballero vs Sportivo Iteno — Division Intermedia 2018

General Caballero
General Caballero
FT
3 – 0
Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
T. S. Arce Villaverde 84', 44', 7'
6/23/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 14Estadio Leandro Ovelar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

General Caballero57%
×Draw22%
Sportivo Iteno21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Caballero
1.92
Sportivo Iteno
1.07

General Caballero creates 79% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 63 away

creates per match

General Caballero
2.02
Sportivo Iteno
0.98

allows per match

General Caballero
1.16
Sportivo Iteno
1.81

finishing

General Caballero+0.00on par
Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Caballero ↓

Sportivo Iteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

General Caballero or draw
79%
General Caballero or Sportivo Iteno
78%
Draw or Sportivo Iteno
43%

Winning margin

General Caballero wins by 2+
33%
Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

General Caballero 1+ goals
85%
General Caballero 2+ goals
57%
General Caballero 3+ goals
30%
Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
66%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
29%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

General Caballero (draw refunded)
73%
Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Caballero at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

Sportivo Iteno away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Caballero attack 2.02 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.92

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + General Caballero defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

General Caballero scores more
57%
level
22%
Sportivo Iteno scores more
21%

General Caballero at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "General Caballero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
T. S. Arce Villaverde
44'
T. S. Arce Villaverde
84'
T. S. Arce Villaverde

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: General Caballero 3–0 Sportivo Iteno

General Caballero beat Sportivo Iteno 3-0 in Division Intermedia on June 23, 2021.

Goals: T. S. Arce Villaverde (7', 44', 84').

The match was played at Estadio Leandro Ovelar in Doctor Juan León Mallorquín.