Sportivo Iteno 1–1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Sportivo Iteno

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

L. Melgarejo 49'

J. Villamayor 81'

5/29/2022

Division Intermedia · Round 10Estadio Salvador Morga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Sportivo Iteno30%

×Draw29%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo ItenoExpected goals in this matchClub Sp. San Lorenzo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.21

Sportivo Iteno

1.00

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.21

Club Sp. San Lorenzo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 92 away

0.97

creates per match

1.20

1.22

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Sportivo Iteno

0.97

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.20

allows per match

Sportivo Iteno

1.22

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Iteno ↓

Club Sp. San Lorenzo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sportivo Iteno or draw

59%

Sportivo Iteno or Club Sp. San Lorenzo

71%

Draw or Club Sp. San Lorenzo

70%

Winning margin

Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+

11%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals

63%

Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals

26%

Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals

8%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals

70%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals

34%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)

43%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Iteno at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.97 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.20 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sportivo Iteno scores more

30%

level

29%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more

41%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

D. Barreto

31'

D. Barreto

49'

L. Melgarejo

81'

J. Villamayor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff