Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Iteno — Division Intermedia 2018

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
FT
1 – 1
Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
J. Amarilla 67'
A. Martinez 1'
5/25/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 9Estadio Gunther Vogel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo56%
×Draw24%
Sportivo Iteno21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.73
Sportivo Iteno
0.95

Club Sp. San Lorenzo creates 82% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 63 away

creates per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.64
Sportivo Iteno
0.98

allows per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
0.91
Sportivo Iteno
1.81

finishing

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par
Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Sp. San Lorenzo ↓

Sportivo Iteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or draw
79%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo or Sportivo Iteno
76%
Draw or Sportivo Iteno
44%

Winning margin

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+
31%
Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals
82%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals
52%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals
25%
Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
61%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
25%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
73%
Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 92 matches

Sportivo Iteno away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.64 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more
56%
level
24%
Sportivo Iteno scores more
21%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
A. Martinez
45+4'
F. Rivarola
67'
J. Amarilla

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 Sportivo Iteno

Club Sp. San Lorenzo and Sportivo Iteno drew 1-1 in Division Intermedia on May 25, 2021.

Goals: A. Martinez (1'), J. Amarilla (67').

The match was played at Estadio Gunther Vogel in San Lorenzo.