Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sportivo Iteno vs Atlético Colegiales — Division Intermedia 2018

Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Atlético Colegiales
Atlético Colegiales
Unknown 72'
E. Bobadilla 41'
R. Roa Juan 40' (pen)
F. Estigarribia 90+3'
R. Roa Juan 79', 40'
8/27/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 24Estadio Presbítero Manuel Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sportivo Iteno46%
×Draw26%
Atlético Colegiales28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Iteno
1.51
Atlético Colegiales
1.11

Sportivo Iteno creates 36% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 44 away

creates per match

Sportivo Iteno
0.98
Atlético Colegiales
0.98

allows per match

Sportivo Iteno
1.24
Atlético Colegiales
2.05

finishing

Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par
Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Iteno ↓

Atlético Colegiales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sportivo Iteno or draw
72%
Sportivo Iteno or Atlético Colegiales
74%
Draw or Atlético Colegiales
54%

Winning margin

Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
23%
Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
78%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
44%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
19%
Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
62%
Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Iteno at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.24 · 62 matches

Atlético Colegiales away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + Atlético Colegiales defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.51

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.98 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sportivo Iteno scores more
46%
level
26%
Atlético Colegiales scores more
28%

Sportivo Iteno at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sportivo Iteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
R. Roa JuanPenalty
40'
R. Roa Juan
41'
E. Bobadilla
70'
72'
77'
79'
R. Roa Juan
90+3'
F. Estigarribia
90+7'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Iteno vs Atlético Colegiales

Sportivo Iteno and Atlético Colegiales drew 3-3 in Division Intermedia on August 27, 2022.

Goals: R. Roa Juan (40' pen, 40', 79'), E. Bobadilla (41'), ? (72'), F. Estigarribia (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Presbítero Manuel Gamarra in Itá.