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Atlético Colegiales vs Sportivo Iteno — Division Intermedia 2018

Atlético Colegiales
Atlético Colegiales
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
G. Beltran 24' (pen)
D. Gonzalez 55'
J. Rios 6'
5/21/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 9Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Atlético Colegiales41%
×Draw26%
Sportivo Iteno33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Colegiales
1.39
Sportivo Iteno
1.23

Atlético Colegiales creates 13% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 63 away

creates per match

Atlético Colegiales
0.96
Sportivo Iteno
0.98

allows per match

Atlético Colegiales
1.47
Sportivo Iteno
1.81

finishing

Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par
Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Colegiales ↓

Sportivo Iteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Colegiales or draw
67%
Atlético Colegiales or Sportivo Iteno
74%
Draw or Sportivo Iteno
59%

Winning margin

Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+
19%
Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals
40%
Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals
16%
Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
71%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
35%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)
55%
Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Colegiales at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Sportivo Iteno away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.96 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + Atlético Colegiales defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Colegiales scores more
41%
level
26%
Sportivo Iteno scores more
33%

Atlético Colegiales at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Colegiales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
J. Rios
24'
G. BeltranPenalty
55'
D. Gonzalez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Colegiales vs Sportivo Iteno

Sportivo Iteno beat Atlético Colegiales 2-1 in Division Intermedia on May 21, 2022.

Goals: J. Rios (6'), G. Beltran (24' pen), D. Gonzalez (55').

The match was played at Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi in Fernando de la Mora.