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Sportivo Italiano vs Deportivo Merlo — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo
3/2/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 6Estadio República de Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sportivo Italiano42%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Merlo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Italiano
1.15
Deportivo Merlo
0.86

Sportivo Italiano creates 34% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 103 away

creates per match

Sportivo Italiano
1.04
Deportivo Merlo
0.92

allows per match

Sportivo Italiano
0.80
Deportivo Merlo
1.25

finishing

Sportivo Italiano+0.00on par
Deportivo Merlo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Italiano ↓

Deportivo Merlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sportivo Italiano or draw
73%
Sportivo Italiano or Deportivo Merlo
70%
Draw or Deportivo Merlo
58%

Winning margin

Sportivo Italiano wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo Merlo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sportivo Italiano 1+ goals
68%
Sportivo Italiano 2+ goals
32%
Sportivo Italiano 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Merlo 1+ goals
58%
Deportivo Merlo 2+ goals
21%
Deportivo Merlo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Italiano (draw refunded)
61%
Deportivo Merlo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Italiano at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.80 · 55 matches

Deportivo Merlo away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.25 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Italiano attack 1.04 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Deportivo Merlo attack 0.92 + Sportivo Italiano defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sportivo Italiano scores more
42%
level
30%
Deportivo Merlo scores more
27%

Sportivo Italiano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sportivo Italiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Sportivo Italiano 1–0 Deportivo Merlo

Sportivo Italiano beat Deportivo Merlo 1-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio República de Italia in La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.