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Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano
5/3/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 14Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Deportivo Merlo36%
×Draw31%
Sportivo Italiano33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Merlo
1.04
Sportivo Italiano
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 54 away

creates per match

Deportivo Merlo
1.00
Sportivo Italiano
0.89

allows per match

Deportivo Merlo
1.06
Sportivo Italiano
1.09

finishing

Deportivo Merlo+0.00on par
Sportivo Italiano+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Merlo ↓

Sportivo Italiano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Merlo or draw
67%
Deportivo Merlo or Sportivo Italiano
69%
Draw or Sportivo Italiano
64%

Winning margin

Deportivo Merlo wins by 2+
14%
Sportivo Italiano wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Merlo 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Merlo 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Merlo 3+ goals
9%
Sportivo Italiano 1+ goals
62%
Sportivo Italiano 2+ goals
26%
Sportivo Italiano 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Merlo (draw refunded)
52%
Sportivo Italiano (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Merlo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 103 matches

Sportivo Italiano away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Merlo attack 1.00 + Sportivo Italiano defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Sportivo Italiano attack 0.89 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Merlo scores more
36%
level
31%
Sportivo Italiano scores more
33%

Deportivo Merlo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportivo Merlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Deportivo Merlo 1–2 Sportivo Italiano

Sportivo Italiano beat Deportivo Merlo 2-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium in Buenos Aires.