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Sportivo Desamparados vs San Jorge Tucumán — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
San Jorge Tucumán
San Jorge Tucumán
3/27/2017Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 4Estadio El Serpentario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sportivo Desamparados39%
×Draw27%
San Jorge Tucumán34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Desamparados
1.29
San Jorge Tucumán
1.17

Sportivo Desamparados creates 10% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sportivo Desamparados
1.05
San Jorge Tucumán
1.59

allows per match

Sportivo Desamparados
0.75
San Jorge Tucumán
1.53

finishing

Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par
San Jorge Tucumán+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Desamparados ↓

San Jorge Tucumán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sportivo Desamparados or draw
66%
Sportivo Desamparados or San Jorge Tucumán
73%
Draw or San Jorge Tucumán
61%

Winning margin

Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
18%
San Jorge Tucumán wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
72%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
37%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
14%
San Jorge Tucumán 1+ goals
69%
San Jorge Tucumán 2+ goals
33%
San Jorge Tucumán 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
54%
San Jorge Tucumán (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Desamparados at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

San Jorge Tucumán away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Desamparados attack 1.05 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.59 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sportivo Desamparados scores more
39%
level
27%
San Jorge Tucumán scores more
34%

Sportivo Desamparados at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sportivo Desamparados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Desamparados vs San Jorge Tucumán

Sportivo Desamparados beat San Jorge Tucumán 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on March 27, 2017.

The match was played at Estadio El Serpentario in San Juan, Provincia de San Juan.