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San Jorge Tucumán vs Sportivo Desamparados — Torneo Federal A 2018

San Jorge Tucumán
San Jorge Tucumán
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
M. Peralta 58', 19'
R. Tapia 13'
N. Sottile 20'
5/19/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 4th RoundEstadio Luis Hayward (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

San Jorge Tucumán56%
×Draw25%
Sportivo Desamparados18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Jorge Tucumán
1.58
Sportivo Desamparados
0.78

San Jorge Tucumán creates 103% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 58 away

creates per match

San Jorge Tucumán
1.81
Sportivo Desamparados
0.67

allows per match

San Jorge Tucumán
0.88
Sportivo Desamparados
1.36

finishing

San Jorge Tucumán+0.00on par
Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Jorge Tucumán ↓

Sportivo Desamparados →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Jorge Tucumán or draw
82%
San Jorge Tucumán or Sportivo Desamparados
75%
Draw or Sportivo Desamparados
44%

Winning margin

San Jorge Tucumán wins by 2+
30%
Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

San Jorge Tucumán 1+ goals
79%
San Jorge Tucumán 2+ goals
47%
San Jorge Tucumán 3+ goals
21%
Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
54%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
18%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

San Jorge Tucumán (draw refunded)
75%
Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Jorge Tucumán at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Sportivo Desamparados away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.36 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.81 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sportivo Desamparados attack 0.67 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

San Jorge Tucumán scores more
56%
level
25%
Sportivo Desamparados scores more
18%

San Jorge Tucumán at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "San Jorge Tucumán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
R. Tapia
19'
M. Peralta
20'
N. Sottile
58'
M. Peralta

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Jorge Tucumán vs Sportivo Desamparados

San Jorge Tucumán beat Sportivo Desamparados 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on May 19, 2019.

Goals: R. Tapia (13'), M. Peralta (19', 58'), N. Sottile (20').

The match was played at Estadio Luis Hayward (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán).