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Sportivo Desamparados vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
10/21/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 3 - 9Estadio El Serpentario (San Juan, Provincia de San Juan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sportivo Desamparados31%
×Draw34%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Desamparados
0.80
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
0.88

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto creates 10% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sportivo Desamparados
1.05
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1.00

allows per match

Sportivo Desamparados
0.75
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
0.54

finishing

Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Desamparados ↓

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sportivo Desamparados or draw
65%
Sportivo Desamparados or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
66%
Draw or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
69%

Winning margin

Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
10%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
55%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
19%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
5%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1+ goals
59%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2+ goals
22%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
47%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Desamparados at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Desamparados attack 1.05 + Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.80

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto attack 1.00 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Sportivo Desamparados scores more
31%
level
34%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto scores more
35%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Desamparados vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Sportivo Desamparados and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio El Serpentario (San Juan, Provincia de San Juan).