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Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Sportivo Desamparados — Torneo Federal A 2018

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
12/11/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 3 - 18Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto (Ciudad de Río Cuarto, Provincia de Córdoba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto59%
×Draw24%
Sportivo Desamparados17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1.71
Sportivo Desamparados
0.80

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto creates 114% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 59 away

creates per match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2.07
Sportivo Desamparados
0.66

allows per match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
0.93
Sportivo Desamparados
1.34

finishing

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto+0.00on par
Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto ↓

Sportivo Desamparados →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto or draw
83%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto or Sportivo Desamparados
76%
Draw or Sportivo Desamparados
41%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins by 2+
33%
Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1+ goals
82%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2+ goals
51%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3+ goals
24%
Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
55%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
19%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (draw refunded)
77%
Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Sportivo Desamparados away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto attack 2.07 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sportivo Desamparados attack 0.66 + Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto scores more
59%
level
24%
Sportivo Desamparados scores more
17%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1 – 0 Sportivo Desamparados

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto beat Sportivo Desamparados 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on December 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto (Ciudad de Río Cuarto, Provincia de Córdoba).