Sportivo Desamparados 2–1 Deportivo Madryn

Sportivo Desamparados

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Madryn

R. Tapia 52'

J. Cáceres 34'

R. Migone 17'

5/2/2021

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 4Estadio El Serpentario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Sportivo Desamparados42%

×Draw31%

Deportivo Madryn27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo DesamparadosExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Madryn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.85

Sportivo Desamparados

1.13

Deportivo Madryn

0.85

Sportivo Desamparados creates 33% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 49 away

1.03

creates per match

0.96

0.75

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Sportivo Desamparados

1.03

Deportivo Madryn

0.96

allows per match

Sportivo Desamparados

0.75

Deportivo Madryn

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Desamparados ↓

Deportivo Madryn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sportivo Desamparados or draw

73%

Sportivo Desamparados or Deportivo Madryn

69%

Draw or Deportivo Madryn

58%

Winning margin

Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals

68%

Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals

31%

Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals

11%

Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals

57%

Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals

21%

Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)

61%

Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Desamparados at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.75 · 59 matches

Deportivo Madryn away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.22 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Desamparados attack 1.03 + Deportivo Madryn defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Deportivo Madryn attack 0.96 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sportivo Desamparados scores more

42%

level

31%

Deportivo Madryn scores more

27%

Sportivo Desamparados at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sportivo Desamparados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

34'

52'

60'

60'

71'

77'

77'

88'

L. Dilelio← J. Cáceres

88'

M. Rodríguez← T. Lerman

Sportivo

Deportivo

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Cáceres

Paz

Manager: C. Bove

77'▲P. Jofré←▼R. Tapia

77'▲K. Ceceri←▼R. Martín

88'▲L. Dilelio←▼J. Cáceres

88'▲M. Rodríguez←▼T. Lerman

Sportivo Desamparados substitutes

JofréCeceriDilelioRodríguez

Manager: R. Pancaldo

60'▲N. Sottile←▼M. Pérez

60'▲F. Molina←▼J. Zúñiga

71'▲F. Niell←▼E. López

Deportivo Madryn substitutes

SottileMolinaNiell

Match Recap: Sportivo Desamparados vs Deportivo Madryn

Sportivo Desamparados beat Deportivo Madryn 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on May 2, 2021.

Goals: R. Migone (17'), J. Cáceres (34'), R. Tapia (52').

The match was played at Estadio El Serpentario in San Juan, Provincia de San Juan.

Sportivo Desamparados vs Deportivo Madryn — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sportivo Desamparados vs Deportivo Madryn