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Deportivo Madryn vs Sportivo Desamparados — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Madryn
CANC
00:00
Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
4/19/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · South - 28Estadio Abel Sastre (Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Deportivo Madryn57%
×Draw27%
Sportivo Desamparados16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Madryn
1.44
Sportivo Desamparados
0.61

Deportivo Madryn creates 136% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 58 away

creates per match

Deportivo Madryn
1.51
Sportivo Desamparados
0.67

allows per match

Deportivo Madryn
0.56
Sportivo Desamparados
1.36

finishing

Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par
Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Madryn ↓

Sportivo Desamparados →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Madryn or draw
84%
Deportivo Madryn or Sportivo Desamparados
73%
Draw or Sportivo Desamparados
43%

Winning margin

Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+
29%
Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals
18%
Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
46%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
13%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)
78%
Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Madryn at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.56 · 45 matches

Sportivo Desamparados away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.36 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Madryn attack 1.51 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sportivo Desamparados attack 0.67 + Deportivo Madryn defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Deportivo Madryn scores more
57%
level
27%
Sportivo Desamparados scores more
16%

Deportivo Madryn at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Deportivo Madryn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Madryn vs Sportivo Desamparados — Match Preview

Deportivo Madryn face Sportivo Desamparados on April 19, 2020 in this Torneo Federal A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Deportivo Madryn host Sportivo Desamparados at Estadio Abel Sastre (Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.