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Sportivo Desamparados vs Boca Unidos — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Boca Unidos
Boca Unidos
4/8/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio El Serpentario (San Juan, Provincia de San Juan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sportivo Desamparados48%
×Draw29%
Boca Unidos24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Desamparados
1.29
Boca Unidos
0.82

Sportivo Desamparados creates 57% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 105 away

creates per match

Sportivo Desamparados
1.05
Boca Unidos
0.89

allows per match

Sportivo Desamparados
0.75
Boca Unidos
1.54

finishing

Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par
Boca Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Desamparados ↓

Boca Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sportivo Desamparados or draw
76%
Sportivo Desamparados or Boca Unidos
71%
Draw or Boca Unidos
52%

Winning margin

Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
22%
Boca Unidos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
72%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
37%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
14%
Boca Unidos 1+ goals
56%
Boca Unidos 2+ goals
20%
Boca Unidos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
67%
Boca Unidos (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Desamparados at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Boca Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.54 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Desamparados attack 1.05 + Boca Unidos defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

Boca Unidos attack 0.89 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sportivo Desamparados scores more
48%
level
29%
Boca Unidos scores more
24%

Sportivo Desamparados at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sportivo Desamparados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportivo Desamparados 1 – 1 Boca Unidos

Sportivo Desamparados and Boca Unidos drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on April 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Serpentario (San Juan, Provincia de San Juan).