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Boca Unidos vs Sportivo Desamparados — Torneo Federal A 2018

Boca Unidos
Boca Unidos
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
3/31/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Leoncio Benítez (Corrientes, Provincia de Corrientes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Boca Unidos51%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Desamparados21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Unidos
1.39
Sportivo Desamparados
0.79

Boca Unidos creates 76% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 59 away

creates per match

Boca Unidos
1.43
Sportivo Desamparados
0.66

allows per match

Boca Unidos
0.91
Sportivo Desamparados
1.34

finishing

Boca Unidos+0.00on par
Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Unidos ↓

Sportivo Desamparados →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Boca Unidos or draw
79%
Boca Unidos or Sportivo Desamparados
72%
Draw or Sportivo Desamparados
49%

Winning margin

Boca Unidos wins by 2+
25%
Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Boca Unidos 1+ goals
75%
Boca Unidos 2+ goals
40%
Boca Unidos 3+ goals
16%
Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
55%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
19%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Boca Unidos (draw refunded)
71%
Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Unidos at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.91 · 106 matches

Sportivo Desamparados away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Unidos attack 1.43 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sportivo Desamparados attack 0.66 + Boca Unidos defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Boca Unidos scores more
51%
level
28%
Sportivo Desamparados scores more
21%

Boca Unidos at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Boca Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Boca Unidos 0–0 Sportivo Desamparados

Boca Unidos and Sportivo Desamparados drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Leoncio Benítez (Corrientes, Provincia de Corrientes).