Sportivo Carapeguá 3–2 Atyrá: Result & Stats

Sportivo Carapeguá

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Atyrá

10/1/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 29Estadio Municipal de Carapeguá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sportivo Carapeguá49%

×Draw25%

Atyrá26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo CarapeguáExpected goals in this matchAtyrá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.08

Sportivo Carapeguá

1.60

Atyrá

1.08

Sportivo Carapeguá creates 48% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 62 away

1.65

creates per match

1.13

1.04

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Sportivo Carapeguá

1.65

Atyrá

1.13

allows per match

Sportivo Carapeguá

1.04

Atyrá

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Carapeguá+0.00on par

Atyrá+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Carapeguá ↓

Atyrá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sportivo Carapeguá or draw

74%

Sportivo Carapeguá or Atyrá

75%

Draw or Atyrá

51%

Winning margin

Sportivo Carapeguá wins by 2+

26%

Atyrá wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sportivo Carapeguá 1+ goals

80%

Sportivo Carapeguá 2+ goals

47%

Sportivo Carapeguá 3+ goals

22%

Atyrá 1+ goals

66%

Atyrá 2+ goals

29%

Atyrá 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Carapeguá (draw refunded)

66%

Atyrá (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Carapeguá at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Atyrá away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.55 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Carapeguá attack 1.65 + Atyrá defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.60

Atyrá attack 1.13 + Sportivo Carapeguá defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sportivo Carapeguá scores more

49%

level

25%

Atyrá scores more

26%

Sportivo Carapeguá at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sportivo Carapeguá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff