Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atyrá vs Sportivo Carapeguá — Division Intermedia 2018

Atyrá
Atyrá
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Carapeguá
Sportivo Carapeguá
6/24/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 14Estadio San Francisco de Asis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Atyrá41%
×Draw27%
Sportivo Carapeguá32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atyrá
1.34
Sportivo Carapeguá
1.15

Atyrá creates 17% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 53 away

creates per match

Atyrá
1.23
Sportivo Carapeguá
1.11

allows per match

Atyrá
1.19
Sportivo Carapeguá
1.45

finishing

Atyrá+0.00on par
Sportivo Carapeguá+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atyrá ↓

Sportivo Carapeguá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atyrá or draw
68%
Atyrá or Sportivo Carapeguá
73%
Draw or Sportivo Carapeguá
59%

Winning margin

Atyrá wins by 2+
19%
Sportivo Carapeguá wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atyrá 1+ goals
74%
Atyrá 2+ goals
39%
Atyrá 3+ goals
15%
Sportivo Carapeguá 1+ goals
68%
Sportivo Carapeguá 2+ goals
32%
Sportivo Carapeguá 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atyrá (draw refunded)
56%
Sportivo Carapeguá (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atyrá at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

Sportivo Carapeguá away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atyrá attack 1.23 + Sportivo Carapeguá defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sportivo Carapeguá attack 1.11 + Atyrá defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atyrá scores more
41%
level
27%
Sportivo Carapeguá scores more
32%

Atyrá at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atyrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Atyrá 2–1 Sportivo Carapeguá

Atyrá beat Sportivo Carapeguá 2-1 in Division Intermedia on June 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Francisco de Asis in Atyrä.