Sportivo Belgrano 0–1 Gimnasia Y Tiro

Sportivo Belgrano

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gimnasia Y Tiro

3/31/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 1Estadio Juan Pablo Francia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Sportivo Belgrano49%

×Draw31%

Gimnasia Y Tiro21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo BelgranoExpected goals in this matchGimnasia Y Tiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.68

Sportivo Belgrano

1.20

Gimnasia Y Tiro

0.68

Sportivo Belgrano creates 76% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 64 away

1.31

creates per match

0.64

0.72

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Sportivo Belgrano

1.31

Gimnasia Y Tiro

0.64

allows per match

Sportivo Belgrano

0.72

Gimnasia Y Tiro

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Belgrano+0.00on par

Gimnasia Y Tiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Belgrano ↓

Gimnasia Y Tiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Sportivo Belgrano or draw

79%

Sportivo Belgrano or Gimnasia Y Tiro

69%

Draw or Gimnasia Y Tiro

51%

Winning margin

Sportivo Belgrano wins by 2+

22%

Gimnasia Y Tiro wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sportivo Belgrano 1+ goals

70%

Sportivo Belgrano 2+ goals

34%

Sportivo Belgrano 3+ goals

12%

Gimnasia Y Tiro 1+ goals

49%

Gimnasia Y Tiro 2+ goals

15%

Gimnasia Y Tiro 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Belgrano (draw refunded)

70%

Gimnasia Y Tiro (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Belgrano at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.72 · 109 matches

Gimnasia Y Tiro away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.08 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Belgrano attack 1.31 + Gimnasia Y Tiro defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Gimnasia Y Tiro attack 0.64 + Sportivo Belgrano defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sportivo Belgrano scores more

49%

level

31%

Gimnasia Y Tiro scores more

21%

Sportivo Belgrano at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sportivo Belgrano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff