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Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Sportivo Belgrano — Torneo Federal A 2018

Gimnasia Y Tiro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Belgrano
Sportivo Belgrano
7/18/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 13Estadio El Gigante del Norte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Gimnasia Y Tiro51%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Belgrano21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.36
Sportivo Belgrano
0.77

Gimnasia Y Tiro creates 77% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 114 away

creates per match

Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.45
Sportivo Belgrano
0.90

allows per match

Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.63
Sportivo Belgrano
1.27

finishing

Gimnasia Y Tiro+0.00on par
Sportivo Belgrano+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia Y Tiro ↓

Sportivo Belgrano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw
79%
Gimnasia Y Tiro or Sportivo Belgrano
72%
Draw or Sportivo Belgrano
49%

Winning margin

Gimnasia Y Tiro wins by 2+
25%
Sportivo Belgrano wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gimnasia Y Tiro 1+ goals
74%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 2+ goals
39%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 3+ goals
16%
Sportivo Belgrano 1+ goals
54%
Sportivo Belgrano 2+ goals
18%
Sportivo Belgrano 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia Y Tiro (draw refunded)
71%
Sportivo Belgrano (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia Y Tiro at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.63 · 64 matches

Sportivo Belgrano away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.27 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia Y Tiro attack 1.45 + Sportivo Belgrano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sportivo Belgrano attack 0.90 + Gimnasia Y Tiro defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gimnasia Y Tiro scores more
51%
level
28%
Sportivo Belgrano scores more
21%

Gimnasia Y Tiro at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gimnasia Y Tiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Sportivo Belgrano

Gimnasia Y Tiro beat Sportivo Belgrano 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Gigante del Norte in Salta, Provincia de Salta.