Sportivo Belgrano 4–1 Atletico Parana

Sportivo Belgrano

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Parana

7/15/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 19Estadio Juan Pablo Francia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sportivo Belgrano55%

×Draw27%

Atletico Parana18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo BelgranoExpected goals in this matchAtletico Parana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.70

Sportivo Belgrano

1.46

Atletico Parana

0.70

Sportivo Belgrano creates 109% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 28 away

1.31

creates per match

0.68

0.72

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Sportivo Belgrano

1.31

Atletico Parana

0.68

allows per match

Sportivo Belgrano

0.72

Atletico Parana

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Belgrano+0.00on par

Atletico Parana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Belgrano ↓

Atletico Parana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sportivo Belgrano or draw

82%

Sportivo Belgrano or Atletico Parana

73%

Draw or Atletico Parana

45%

Winning margin

Sportivo Belgrano wins by 2+

28%

Atletico Parana wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sportivo Belgrano 1+ goals

77%

Sportivo Belgrano 2+ goals

43%

Sportivo Belgrano 3+ goals

18%

Atletico Parana 1+ goals

50%

Atletico Parana 2+ goals

16%

Atletico Parana 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Belgrano (draw refunded)

76%

Atletico Parana (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Belgrano at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.72 · 109 matches

Atletico Parana away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Belgrano attack 1.31 + Atletico Parana defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.46

Atletico Parana attack 0.68 + Sportivo Belgrano defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sportivo Belgrano scores more

55%

level

27%

Atletico Parana scores more

18%

Sportivo Belgrano at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sportivo Belgrano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff