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Atletico Parana vs Sportivo Belgrano — Torneo Federal A 2018

Atletico Parana
Atletico Parana
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sportivo Belgrano
Sportivo Belgrano
4/3/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 2Estadio Pedro Mutio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Atletico Parana37%
×Draw29%
Sportivo Belgrano35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Parana
1.14
Sportivo Belgrano
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 114 away

creates per match

Atletico Parana
1.00
Sportivo Belgrano
0.90

allows per match

Atletico Parana
1.31
Sportivo Belgrano
1.27

finishing

Atletico Parana+0.00on par
Sportivo Belgrano+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Parana ↓

Sportivo Belgrano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Parana or draw
65%
Atletico Parana or Sportivo Belgrano
71%
Draw or Sportivo Belgrano
63%

Winning margin

Atletico Parana wins by 2+
15%
Sportivo Belgrano wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atletico Parana 1+ goals
68%
Atletico Parana 2+ goals
32%
Atletico Parana 3+ goals
11%
Sportivo Belgrano 1+ goals
67%
Sportivo Belgrano 2+ goals
30%
Sportivo Belgrano 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atletico Parana (draw refunded)
51%
Sportivo Belgrano (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Parana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Sportivo Belgrano away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.27 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Parana attack 1.00 + Sportivo Belgrano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sportivo Belgrano attack 0.90 + Atletico Parana defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atletico Parana scores more
37%
level
29%
Sportivo Belgrano scores more
35%

Atletico Parana at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atletico Parana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Atletico Parana 0–1 Sportivo Belgrano

Sportivo Belgrano beat Atletico Parana 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Mutio in Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos.