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Sportivo Barracas vs General Lamadrid — Primera C 2026

Sportivo Barracas
Sportivo Barracas
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
General Lamadrid
General Lamadrid
3/18/2024Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 8Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Sportivo Barracas40%
×Draw28%
General Lamadrid31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Barracas
1.24
General Lamadrid
1.06

Sportivo Barracas creates 17% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 136 away

creates per match

Sportivo Barracas
1.11
General Lamadrid
1.01

allows per match

Sportivo Barracas
1.11
General Lamadrid
1.36

finishing

Sportivo Barracas+0.00on par
General Lamadrid+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Barracas ↓

General Lamadrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sportivo Barracas or draw
69%
Sportivo Barracas or General Lamadrid
72%
Draw or General Lamadrid
60%

Winning margin

Sportivo Barracas wins by 2+
18%
General Lamadrid wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sportivo Barracas 1+ goals
71%
Sportivo Barracas 2+ goals
35%
Sportivo Barracas 3+ goals
13%
General Lamadrid 1+ goals
65%
General Lamadrid 2+ goals
29%
General Lamadrid 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Barracas (draw refunded)
56%
General Lamadrid (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Barracas at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 71 matches

General Lamadrid away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.36 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Barracas attack 1.11 + General Lamadrid defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

General Lamadrid attack 1.01 + Sportivo Barracas defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportivo Barracas scores more
40%
level
28%
General Lamadrid scores more
31%

Sportivo Barracas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sportivo Barracas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Sportivo Barracas 0–3 General Lamadrid

General Lamadrid beat Sportivo Barracas 3-0 in Primera C on March 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano in Morón, Provincia de Buenos Aires.