General Lamadrid 1–1 Sportivo Barracas

General Lamadrid

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sportivo Barracas

5/20/2025

Primera C · Round 11Estadio Enrique VI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

General Lamadrid47%

×Draw29%

Sportivo Barracas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General LamadridExpected goals in this matchSportivo Barracas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.81

General Lamadrid

1.27

Sportivo Barracas

0.81

General Lamadrid creates 57% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 68 away

1.31

creates per match

0.78

0.84

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

General Lamadrid

1.31

Sportivo Barracas

0.78

allows per match

General Lamadrid

0.84

Sportivo Barracas

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Lamadrid+0.00on par

Sportivo Barracas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Lamadrid ↓

Sportivo Barracas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

General Lamadrid or draw

76%

General Lamadrid or Sportivo Barracas

71%

Draw or Sportivo Barracas

53%

Winning margin

General Lamadrid wins by 2+

22%

Sportivo Barracas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

General Lamadrid 1+ goals

72%

General Lamadrid 2+ goals

36%

General Lamadrid 3+ goals

14%

Sportivo Barracas 1+ goals

56%

Sportivo Barracas 2+ goals

19%

Sportivo Barracas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

General Lamadrid (draw refunded)

67%

Sportivo Barracas (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Lamadrid at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 140 matches

Sportivo Barracas away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Lamadrid attack 1.31 + Sportivo Barracas defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sportivo Barracas attack 0.78 + General Lamadrid defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

General Lamadrid scores more

47%

level

29%

Sportivo Barracas scores more

24%

General Lamadrid at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "General Lamadrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff