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Sportivo Barracas vs Fénix — Primera C 2026

Sportivo Barracas
Sportivo Barracas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fénix
Fénix
J. Esteche 48'
3/16/2026Primera CPrimera C · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sportivo Barracas55%
×Draw29%
Fénix17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Barracas
1.33
Fénix
0.60

Sportivo Barracas creates 122% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sportivo Barracas
1.21
Fénix
0.45

allows per match

Sportivo Barracas
0.75
Fénix
1.45

finishing

Sportivo Barracas+0.00on par
Fénix+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Barracas ↓

Fénix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sportivo Barracas or draw
83%
Sportivo Barracas or Fénix
71%
Draw or Fénix
45%

Winning margin

Sportivo Barracas wins by 2+
26%
Fénix wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sportivo Barracas 1+ goals
74%
Sportivo Barracas 2+ goals
38%
Sportivo Barracas 3+ goals
15%
Fénix 1+ goals
45%
Fénix 2+ goals
12%
Fénix 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Barracas (draw refunded)
76%
Fénix (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Barracas at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.75 · 28 matches

Fénix away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Barracas attack 1.21 + Fénix defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fénix attack 0.45 + Sportivo Barracas defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sportivo Barracas scores more
55%
level
29%
Fénix scores more
17%

Sportivo Barracas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sportivo Barracas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
J. Esteche

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Sportivo Barracas 0–1 Fénix

Fénix beat Sportivo Barracas 1-0 in Primera C on March 16, 2026.

Goals: J. Esteche (48').