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Fénix vs Sportivo Barracas — Primera C 2026

Fénix
Fénix
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sportivo Barracas
Sportivo Barracas
D. Mena 90+4'
M. Martinez 64'
S. Gomez 44'
7/13/2026Primera CPrimera C · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Fénix31%
×Draw32%
Sportivo Barracas37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fénix
0.90
Sportivo Barracas
1.01

Sportivo Barracas creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 23 away

creates per match

Fénix
0.83
Sportivo Barracas
1.09

allows per match

Fénix
0.92
Sportivo Barracas
0.96

finishing

Fénix+0.00on par
Sportivo Barracas+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fénix ↓

Sportivo Barracas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Fénix or draw
63%
Fénix or Sportivo Barracas
68%
Draw or Sportivo Barracas
69%

Winning margin

Fénix wins by 2+
11%
Sportivo Barracas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fénix 1+ goals
59%
Fénix 2+ goals
23%
Fénix 3+ goals
6%
Sportivo Barracas 1+ goals
64%
Sportivo Barracas 2+ goals
27%
Sportivo Barracas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fénix (draw refunded)
46%
Sportivo Barracas (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fénix at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Sportivo Barracas away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fénix attack 0.83 + Sportivo Barracas defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.90

Sportivo Barracas attack 1.09 + Fénix defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fénix scores more
31%
level
32%
Sportivo Barracas scores more
37%

Sportivo Barracas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sportivo Barracas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
S. Gomez
64'
M. Martinez
90+4'
D. Mena

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fénix vs Sportivo Barracas

Fénix beat Sportivo Barracas 2-1 in Primera C on July 13, 2026.

Goals: S. Gomez (44'), M. Martinez (64'), D. Mena (90+4').