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Sportivo Ameliano vs SOL DE America — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
SOL DE America
SOL DE America
3/17/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 10Estadio Rogelio Silvino Livieres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sportivo Ameliano42%
×Draw25%
SOL DE America33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Ameliano
1.52
SOL DE America
1.31

Sportivo Ameliano creates 16% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 64 away

creates per match

Sportivo Ameliano
1.13
SOL DE America
1.20

allows per match

Sportivo Ameliano
1.42
SOL DE America
1.91

finishing

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par
SOL DE America+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Ameliano ↓

SOL DE America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sportivo Ameliano or draw
67%
Sportivo Ameliano or SOL DE America
75%
Draw or SOL DE America
58%

Winning margin

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
21%
SOL DE America wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
78%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
45%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
20%
SOL DE America 1+ goals
73%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
38%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
56%
SOL DE America (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Ameliano at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

SOL DE America away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.13 + SOL DE America defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.52

SOL DE America attack 1.20 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sportivo Ameliano scores more
42%
level
25%
SOL DE America scores more
33%

Sportivo Ameliano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: Sportivo Ameliano 2–1 SOL DE America

Sportivo Ameliano beat SOL DE America 2-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rogelio Silvino Livieres in Asunción.