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SOL DE America vs Sportivo Ameliano — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

SOL DE America
SOL DE America
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
6/3/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 21Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

SOL DE America34%
×Draw27%
Sportivo Ameliano39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SOL DE America
1.16
Sportivo Ameliano
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 55 away

creates per match

SOL DE America
1.20
Sportivo Ameliano
1.04

allows per match

SOL DE America
1.50
Sportivo Ameliano
1.11

finishing

SOL DE America+0.00on par
Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOL DE America ↓

Sportivo Ameliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

SOL DE America or draw
61%
SOL DE America or Sportivo Ameliano
73%
Draw or Sportivo Ameliano
66%

Winning margin

SOL DE America wins by 2+
14%
Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SOL DE America 1+ goals
69%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
32%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
11%
Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
72%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
36%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SOL DE America (draw refunded)
46%
Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOL DE America at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

Sportivo Ameliano away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOL DE America attack 1.20 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.04 + SOL DE America defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SOL DE America scores more
34%
level
27%
Sportivo Ameliano scores more
39%

Sportivo Ameliano at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: SOL DE America 2–1 Sportivo Ameliano

SOL DE America beat Sportivo Ameliano 2-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on June 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni in Asunción.